Hurricane Melissa, one of the most potent storms ever documented in the Caribbean, is poised to make landfall in Jamaica early Tuesday following a period of “rapid intensification” – a phenomenon driven by climate change that is increasingly leading to catastrophic storms in the region. Initially a tropical storm on Saturday morning, Melissa’s wind speeds surged from approximately 115 kilometers per hour to 225 kilometers per hour within a day and escalated to a Category 5 hurricane by Monday morning, marking one of the swiftest intensifications witnessed in the Caribbean.
By Monday afternoon, the storm’s wind speeds had reached 281 kilometers per hour, making it the most powerful storm globally in 2025, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). The slow movement of Melissa poses significant danger, as noted by Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the U.K.’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, who emphasized that the storm’s gradual progression could result in substantial rainfall over Jamaica.
The storm has already claimed six lives across the Caribbean, prompting Jamaica to brace for what could be its most severe hurricane disaster to date. Some regions of the country may experience up to a meter of rainfall, as forecasted by the NHC. Hurricane Beryl struck the southern part of Jamaica last year, resulting in approximately $200 million in losses, equivalent to 1.1% of Jamaica’s GDP, and also underwent rapid intensification.
Deoras attributes Melissa’s strength to two primary factors: abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean, exceeding normal levels by two to three degrees, and the reliance of tropical storms on the energy derived from the warm surface waters. The storm capitalized on these warm conditions, facilitating its rapid development as it moved sluggishly through the area over the weekend.
Increasing ocean heat is a global trend impacting climate systems in novel ways, with a significant heatwave in the Pacific Ocean leading to atypical fall temperatures in North America. Last year, global average sea surface temperatures were recorded as the warmest on record.
Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at the non-profit organization Climate Central, highlights that the elevated ocean temperatures were made 500 to 700 times more probable due to climate change. Climate Central’s analysis indicates that climate change has boosted Melissa’s peak wind speed by approximately 16 km/h, consequently elevating the potential damages by 50%.
Winkley notes that four of this season’s five hurricanes have undergone remarkable rapid intensification, a phenomenon that was uncommon a few decades ago but is now observed virtually every season, if not multiple times within a single season.
