Alberta politics have been far from dull lately, with various engaging events shaping the political landscape in 2025. These include citizen-led petitions on separation, the notwithstanding clause being used multiple times, recall petitions, progress on a pipeline deal, and municipal elections across the province. Looking ahead to 2026, Albertans are expected to participate in referendums on several significant issues.
Premier Danielle Smith has expressed support for a sovereign Alberta within Canada but hinted at a possible separation referendum in 2026 following the federal election won by Mark Carney’s Liberals. Despite a recent court ruling deeming a separation referendum unconstitutional, the Alberta Prosperity Project is likely to push for a ballot question on Alberta’s independence.
Moreover, recall petitions targeting several politicians, including Premier Smith, are underway. However, the success of these petitions is uncertain, with political analyst Lori Williams suggesting it’s a long shot. The petitions stem from concerns over the government’s use of the notwithstanding clause and constituents feeling unheard.
On the financial front, Alberta faces a larger-than-expected deficit due to fluctuating oil prices. The province’s upcoming budget release is anticipated to shed light on its financial situation. In addition, a memorandum of understanding signed between Alberta and Ottawa paves the way for a new bitumen pipeline application, though challenges from various groups remain.
The relationship between Alberta and Ottawa has seen developments, particularly in the context of the pipeline agreement. Premier Smith faces the delicate task of balancing Alberta’s interests against federal initiatives. The possibility of a referendum on Alberta’s exit from the Canada Pension Plan adds another layer of complexity to the province’s political landscape.
Furthermore, healthcare reforms allowing surgeons to operate in both public and private systems simultaneously have raised concerns about creating a two-tier health system. The legislation aims to reduce wait times and pressures on the public healthcare system, but critics fear it could lead to inequities.
While Alberta’s next election is scheduled for October 2027, speculation about an early election persists. However, analysts believe this is more about strategic posturing than a real possibility, unless significant shifts occur due to recall petitions or other unforeseen developments.