The latest polls indicate a shift in electoral fortunes in Manitoba as the federal election campaign gets underway. While early January polls hinted at potential challenges for the Liberal Party, recent data now points towards the New Democrats facing a significant decline in support within the province.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call for an election on April 28 has set the stage for a close race between the Liberals and Conservatives. According to CBC’s Poll Tracker, both parties are currently neck and neck in terms of popular vote share. However, the Liberals hold an edge due to the strategic distribution of their support across ridings.
Contrary to previous expectations, the polls indicate a sharp drop in NDP backing, raising concerns about the party’s ability to maintain its official status with a minimum of 12 seats. Mary Agnes Welch, a partner at Probe Research in Winnipeg, notes that Canadian voters are predominantly viewing the election as a two-way contest between the Liberals and Conservatives.
A recent Probe Research survey conducted in Manitoba revealed a significant decline in NDP support to just nine percent. In contrast, the Liberals and Conservatives are in a tight race, each garnering 44 and 42 percent of popular support, respectively.
Polling experts, including Eric Grenier, emphasize the potential challenges for incumbent NDP MPs in Manitoba. Grenier highlights the narrow victory of NDP MP Leila Dance in the Elmwood-Transcona by-election and suggests that other NDP incumbents, like Niki Ashton and Leah Gazan, may also face tough competition in the upcoming election.
Despite the polling data, NDP MP Leah Gazan remains optimistic about her chances in Winnipeg Centre, a riding she won in 2019. In response to the declining support for the NDP, Rahul Walia, a 23-year-old Liberal candidate challenging Gazan, emphasizes the need for positive change and addressing issues like tariff threats.
The shifting dynamics in Manitoba could benefit Liberal candidates in certain ridings, providing them with a more comfortable campaign environment. Incumbents like Ben Carr, Kevin Lamoureux, and Terry Duguid may have a smoother path to re-election, while new candidates like Ginette Lavack in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital could face reduced challenges.
Overall, the electoral landscape in Manitoba is evolving, with the potential for surprises as voter sentiments continue to fluctuate. The upcoming election will test the political fortunes of various parties and candidates across the province.
