An alteration in the U.S. approach towards Venezuela has caused a ripple effect on guerrilla factions operating in the border regions shared with Colombia, sparking concerns about potential treachery from Venezuelan government authorities. Security analysts from the local region suggest that the recent developments following the January 3 assaults have led to an uptick in guerrilla movements on both sides of the border. Notably, the National Liberation Army (ELN), a prominent guerrilla organization in the area, has reportedly taken precautionary measures such as shutting down camps in Venezuela amidst fears of betrayal by Venezuelan officials to the U.S. forces.
Jorge Mantilla, an expert on armed conflicts and national security in Bogotá, highlighted the ELN’s strategic adjustments in response to the evolving situation. He mentioned that the group is reevaluating its security protocols and social control mechanisms in Venezuelan communities where its leaders are active. Moreover, the ELN has put a halt to training activities within the country and postponed plans for establishing a specialized military unit with Venezuelan military support, Mantilla added.
The ELN has long anticipated a potential U.S. intervention in Venezuela, as indicated by past communications and warnings to Venezuelan authorities. Pablo Beltrán, a key negotiator for the ELN, previously hinted at the likelihood of U.S. military action driven by resource interests in Venezuela. Additionally, a letter intercepted by Colombian intelligence in 2019, addressed to then-President Nicolás Maduro, forewarned of internal traitors within the Venezuelan military, underscoring the ELN’s vigilance towards potential betrayals.
The recent geopolitical shifts have raised the possibility of the ELN expanding its influence beyond Colombia and Venezuela, aiming to establish itself as a regional guerrilla force. Ivan Mordisco, a prominent figure leading a splinter group from the disbanded Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), urged unity among guerrilla factions and the Venezuelan military to counter the perceived threat posed by the U.S. However, skepticism surrounds Mordisco’s credibility and trustworthiness, given his criminal status and the substantial bounty placed on him by the Colombian government.
The ELN’s historical ties with Venezuela, dating back to the Hugo Chávez era, have shaped its operational presence in both countries. With a significant presence along the Colombia-Venezuela border encompassing vast territories rich in natural resources, the ELN relies on illicit activities like illegal mining and drug trafficking for sustenance. The group’s alignment with the political ideology of the Venezuelan regime, particularly in upholding the Bolivarian Revolution, underscores its entrenched position within the region.
Looking ahead, the evolving dynamics have prompted collaborative efforts between U.S. and Colombian authorities to confront groups like the ELN. Nevertheless, voices advocating for a holistic approach to peacebuilding in the region emphasize the imperative of community empowerment and human rights protection as fundamental pillars for lasting stability and harmony.