On the back of another victory in a byelection, Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon acknowledges the apprehensions expressed by his constituents regarding the timing of a referendum, with concerns about the potential economic impacts of policies from the Trump administration. Despite this, he remains committed to his pledge of conducting a referendum during his first term if his party assumes power in the upcoming provincial election scheduled for this autumn.
During a session at the Quebec National Assembly, St-Pierre Plamondon defended his intentions to hold a sovereignty vote, clarifying statements made in his victory speech following the recent byelection triumph in Chicoutimi. This marked the fourth consecutive byelection where the PQ secured a seat from the ruling Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ).
Addressing the crowd on Monday, St-Pierre Plamondon empathized with individuals expressing genuine fears and assured them of the PQ government’s unwavering support for Quebecers, emphasizing resilience in the face of perceived threats from the United States. He highlighted the potential for changes over a four-year term, including the possibility of a new American administration, and affirmed that the PQ would carefully choose the opportune moment within that period to initiate a referendum.
Opposition parties swiftly criticized the sovereignist leader, accusing him of retracting his referendum commitment and deliberately fostering ambiguity surrounding the issue just months ahead of the anticipated provincial election. Quebec Liberal MNA Désirée McGraw raised concerns over the evolving stance, highlighting the detrimental impact of uncertainty on businesses and the economy.
St-Pierre Plamondon refuted claims of altering his position, attributing such narratives to fear-mongering tactics by the opposition rather than allowing Quebec residents to determine their future through a democratic vote. Drawing parallels with Alberta, he emphasized the need for a clear political direction amidst what he perceived as a lack of leadership in other parties.
A recent survey by Angus Reid, encompassing over 900 participants, revealed that only 15% of respondents would unequivocally vote in favor of secession if a referendum were held presently, with an additional 11% leaning towards separation.
In parallel, Quebec Conservative Party Leader Éric Duhaime reflected on the Chicoutimi byelection outcomes, hailing his party’s second-place finish with over 26% of the vote, a substantial improvement from previous electoral performances in the region. Duhaime interpreted these results as indicative of a potential two-way contest between his party and the PQ in the forthcoming election, particularly in French-speaking areas beyond Montreal.
Duhaime attributed his success partly to the popularity of the party’s candidate, Catherine Morissette, recognized for her background in business and municipal politics within the region. Additionally, he highlighted the Quebec Conservative Party’s anti-referendum stance as a contributing factor to their electoral achievements.
Anticipating the upcoming election, Duhaime extended an invitation to anglophone Quebecers dissatisfied with the Quebec Liberal Party to support his party, emphasizing the need to bolster Conservative backing to counter the PQ’s referendum agenda. However, some analysts cautioned that this emphasis on anti-referendum campaigning might splinter the vote and inadvertently benefit the PQ.
Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, underscored the protest nature of byelections against the government and cautioned against overinterpreting their significance in predicting voter behavior in the general election. Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president of Léger, noted the rising influence of the Quebec Conservative Party, transforming it from a marginal entity to a formidable political player in the province.
As Duhaime’s party continues to gain traction, securing second place in the byelection despite lacking representation in the provincial assembly, the political landscape in Quebec appears poised for a dynamic and competitive electoral contest ahead.