Many Canadian travelers are avoiding trips to the United States, resulting in negative impacts on the U.S. economy. According to a report from the U.S. Travel Association, there is a projected 3.2% decrease in international tourism spending in the U.S. for 2025, equating to a loss of $5.7 billion compared to the previous year.
This decline is primarily attributed to the reduced number of Canadian visitors, a trend that has persisted since President Donald Trump initiated a trade dispute with Canada and referred to the country as the 51st state.
Recent data for October shows a significant drop in return trips by Canadians to the U.S., with a 24% decrease in air travel and a 30% decline in land travel compared to the same period last year. Canadians traditionally account for a significant portion of international tourists in the U.S., making up 28% of the total visitors in 2024.
Usha Haley, a management professor at Wichita State University, warns that the decrease in tourism spending poses a threat to numerous jobs in the industry. She emphasizes the labor-intensive nature of the tourism sector and its substantial role as an employer in various states, highlighting potential job losses and subsequent impacts on tax revenue and municipal finances.
Last month, President Trump expressed optimism about resolving the Canadian tourism issue, emphasizing the strong relationship between the two countries. However, subsequent actions, including heightened tariffs and halted trade talks, have strained relations further.
The ongoing decline in international tourism has contributed to a travel trade deficit for the U.S. in 2025, with more Americans traveling abroad than foreign visitors coming to the U.S. This deficit is forecasted to reach nearly $70 billion for the year.
As the U.S. historically enjoyed a travel trade surplus, the current deficit raises concerns, particularly regarding the government’s focus on trade balances. Haley hopes this significant deficit will draw attention from the administration.
Impact on Canadian Travel to the U.S.
The U.S. Travel Association anticipates a rebound in international travel in 2026, driven by events like the FIFA World Cup and the country’s 250th anniversary celebrations. However, uncertainty remains regarding whether Canadian travelers, dissatisfied with the current administration, will reverse their avoidance of the U.S.
Rena Hans, a Toronto resident, has decided to forgo visiting the U.S. this winter due to disagreements with the Trump administration’s policies. Instead, she plans trips to other destinations like Costa Rica, Turks and Caicos, China, and Taiwan, emphasizing her ability to support countries aligning with her values through her travel choices.
A recent Angus Reid poll indicates that a majority of Canadians are uncomfortable traveling to the U.S. this winter, citing reasons such as patriotism, political climate, and concerns over border security measures introduced during the Trump presidency.
Increasingly stringent regulations, like the U.S. government’s new registration requirement for long-stay travelers, have further deterred Canadians from visiting the U.S. The rule mandates registration for certain travelers staying over 29 days, involving biometric data collection and a fee.
Tourism organizations in U.S. states near the Canadian border, such as Buffalo and Seattle, have launched campaigns offering discounts and incentives to attract Canadian visitors. Discover Kalispell, representing a city in Montana, has introduced a Canadian Welcome Pass to encourage Canadian tourists to visit by providing deals and discounts at local businesses.
Businesses like My Place Hotel in Kalispell have witnessed a decline in Canadian customers and are offering discounts to incentivize their return. Such initiatives aim to rebuild the relationship between Canadian tourists and U.S. destinations affected by the decline in international travel.