In May, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season. However, the season has been relatively calm so far, with only four named storms. Despite this lull, experts warn that the quiet period could soon come to an end, urging people to remain vigilant.
The current named storms include Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter, the most recent formation in the North Atlantic on August 4. With four named storms recorded, slightly more than the average of 3.2 for this time of year, some may wonder why the season appears subdued. Jennifer Collins, a geosciences professor at the University of South Florida, explained that the perception of quietness may stem from the early onset of past active seasons.
Collins highlighted that the prevalence of short-lived storms contributes to the overall sense of inactivity. Tropical storm Andrea lasted two days, Barry three days, and Chantal five days, causing significant weather patterns over Texas that led to widespread flooding and tragic fatalities.
While the Atlantic remains relatively calm, the Pacific Ocean has seen heightened activity, with eight named storms, including four hurricanes. Collins noted a historical trend where decreased Atlantic activity correlates with increased Pacific activity, particularly towards Hawaii.
The hurricane season’s slow start is not unprecedented, as evidenced by previous years with delayed storm formations followed by a surge in activity. Currently, tropical storm Dexter looms off the coast of Nova Scotia, with two potential storm areas identified by the National Hurricane Center.
Chris Fogarty from the Canadian Hurricane Centre emphasized that the number of storms alone does not depict the season’s true activity level. He explained that the quality and strength of storms play a crucial role in assessing the season’s intensity. Factors like moisture, warm water, and favorable wind conditions are essential for hurricane formation, and their absence has contributed to the current calmness in the Atlantic.
Looking ahead, the NOAA’s initial forecast of 13 to 19 named storms, of which six to ten could become hurricanes, remains in play. With the peak of the hurricane season approaching in August and September, experts caution against complacency, highlighting the risks of inland flooding and rapid intensification of hurricanes, which pose significant dangers. Vigilance and preparedness are key as the season progresses.
The NOAA plans to update its hurricane forecast on August 7, underscoring the need for continued monitoring and readiness in the face of potential developments.
