The agreement that constrained the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons between the United States and Russia has expired, leading to uncertainty about the intentions of Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. New START, which was the latest in a series of agreements dating back to 1972, has lapsed, marking the first time in over 50 years that there is no formal agreement limiting the nuclear arsenals of the world’s two largest powers.
The end of the treaty has raised concerns about the potential for a new nuclear arms race, although experts generally agree that any future agreements must address the evolving nuclear landscape, including China’s expanding weapons program. The prospect of Trump, Putin, and China’s President Xi Jinping swiftly reaching a new deal seems optimistic at best.
With the treaty now expired, the U.S. and Russia were previously bound to limit their nuclear warheads to 1,550 each and restrict deployments of certain missile systems. Despite Putin hinting at renewing the treaty before his summit with Trump, the proposal did not materialize. Trump has dismissed the significance of the treaty’s expiration, aiming for a new and improved agreement that can endure over time.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has echoed the call for a modernized treaty that involves China, highlighting the necessity of addressing the Chinese nuclear expansion. According to a Pentagon report, China is on track to increase its nuclear warheads to over 1,000 by 2030.
While efforts are underway to uphold the weapon limits of New START without a formal extension, there remains uncertainty about the post-expiration scenario. The treaty’s expiration has prompted discussions on the future of strategic stability, with a focus on how to navigate the evolving global nuclear landscape effectively.