Quebec’s Finance Minister, Eric Girard, has presented a conservative budget ahead of the October election to navigate through trade disruptions and geopolitical challenges. The budget, the eighth under the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) government, focuses on stability rather than flashy expenditures typical of pre-election budgets.
The projected deficit for this year is $9.9 billion, lower than the previous estimate of $12.4 billion, standing at 1.5% of GDP. Looking ahead to the 2026-27 fiscal year, the budget forecasts a deficit of $8.6 billion within the $170.8 billion budget.
Girard highlighted Quebec’s robust economic foundations, noting its strong financial position compared to the rest of Canada. However, the budget’s expenditures are contingent on stable U.S. tariff rates and the permanence of current tariffs, with considerations for the recent oil price surge assumed to be temporary.
The upcoming provincial election and the ongoing CAQ leadership race pose challenges to the budget’s long-term application, acknowledged by Girard. Despite the complexities, Girard expressed pride in the budget’s responsible approach amidst the evolving political landscape.
Pascal Paradis, Parti Québécois (PQ) MNA for Jean-Talon, criticized the budget’s short-term vision and absence of gas price reduction promises, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal planning beyond immediate concerns.
The budget, titled “A Responsible Budget With Targeted Measures for Quebecers,” allocates funds to address social issues like homelessness, intimate partner violence, and food insecurity. It includes over $2 billion for infrastructure investments in vital sectors such as healthcare, education, and public transit.
Economic forecasts in the budget project optimism despite challenges like U.S. protectionism, aiming to eliminate the deficit by 2029-30. The GDP growth is expected to reach 1.1% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, conditional on stable tariff rates.
Moreover, the budget earmarks $250 million annually for the next five years for the CAQ’s future leader to fulfill electoral promises. This move has sparked concerns and scrutiny from opposition leaders and stakeholders, questioning the allocation’s priorities and potential impact on vulnerable populations.
In conclusion, the budget’s conservative approach, focus on stability, and strategic investments reflect Quebec’s efforts to navigate uncertainties and maintain financial resilience amidst evolving political dynamics.