Foreign diplomats have been praising Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent speech at Davos, particularly his call for middle powers to unite, which gained significant traction in Europe. Building on Carney’s message, a new report released ahead of the annual Munich Security Conference expands on the idea and issues several notable warnings.
One key message emphasized in the report is the need for more than mere presence from allies – they must contribute meaningfully. The report underscores the importance of sustained investment, credibility, and trust in alliances, highlighting that these elements require active upkeep rather than passive reliance.
Set to be the focal point of discussions at the upcoming Munich Security Conference, the report by Tobias Bunde and Sophie Eisentraut suggests that adapting to a more competitive global landscape is essential to avoid being marginalized in a world increasingly shaped by power dynamics over consensus. The report stresses that the strength of international rules hinges on democratic states willing to defend them, a sobering assessment for Canada.
The report questions long-held assumptions about the stability of the rules-based order and the reliability of alliances, hinting at a potential shift in the international landscape. With the United States taking a different approach under new leadership, there is a growing realization that the established order may no longer be sustainable.
At last year’s Munich Security Conference, U.S. Vice-President JD Vance criticized European democracies, warning of internal threats overshadowing external ones. The report echoes this sentiment, noting a rise in political movements aiming to dismantle existing institutions rather than reform them.
In a world where economic ties no longer guarantee stability and security commitments are conditional, middle powers like Canada face challenges in exerting influence without significant leverage. Carney acknowledged this reality at the World Economic Forum, emphasizing the need to adapt to a more competitive global environment.
The report emphasizes the importance of tangible capabilities over rhetoric, warning that without material power and sustained investment, even well-intentioned countries risk losing influence. The gap between rhetoric and action is fueling disillusionment in Western democracies, paving the way for those seeking to disrupt the status quo.
Despite growing skepticism towards the United States as a dependable partner, Canadians remain supportive of international engagement, with many advocating for continued involvement on the global stage. However, the report underscores that engagement comes with a price, as institutions, norms, and alliances require active defense and commitment.
As discussions unfold at the Munich Security Conference, the focus will be on navigating the evolving international landscape and charting a path forward in a world where traditional norms and alliances are being redefined.