Electricity demand in Canada is expected to experience significant growth by 2050, as per the latest modeling by the national energy regulator released on Tuesday. The projections also indicate a strong increase in natural gas production and the expansion of renewable energy sources across the country.
The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) forecasts a 44% surge in power consumption from 2023 to 2050, driven by rising needs in residential, industrial, and technology sectors like AI data centers. The country’s electricity system capacity is anticipated to double from 160 gigawatts in 2023 to 310 gigawatts by 2050, with wind energy playing a major role in production growth.
According to Darren Christie, the CER’s chief economist, while wind energy will be the primary source of generation increase, there will also be a rise in solar energy. The modeling suggests a balanced mix of renewable sources alongside more stable options like hydroelectricity, nuclear, and natural gas to support the variable power sources.
Interprovincial transmission capacity is projected to increase by about 70% by 2050, enabling better balancing of electricity supply and demand across provinces. Ontario is spearheading nuclear power expansion with the construction of small modular nuclear plants, while other provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan are following suit.
The modeling indicates relatively stable consumption levels for oil and natural gas in the coming decades, with a marginal increase in fossil fuel use by 2050. Natural gas production is expected to grow, depending on the development of liquified natural gas (LNG) export facilities.
The outlook for Canada’s oil production remains uncertain due to global commodity price fluctuations. The CER has outlined four scenarios, including a traditional baseline, projecting oil production to peak around 2042 before stabilizing and potentially declining by 2050.
Overall, the modeling suggests that greenhouse gas emissions will decrease over time due to cleaner energy sources and enhanced environmental practices. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 will necessitate a significant shift towards low-carbon technologies, as highlighted in the latest CER energy outlook. This report marks the first update by the national energy regulator since 2023, continuing a long history of energy outlook reports since 1967.