In the realm of Canadian politics, there exists a spectrum of terms to characterize Members of Parliament (MPs) who switch party allegiance. While descriptors like “traitor” and “brave” may be used, history reveals a key aspect that does not always hold true: the ease of being re-elected.
The recent news of longstanding Conservative member Chris d’Entremont’s move to the federal Liberal caucus, with Prime Minister Mark Carney suggesting potential further defections, caused a stir in Ottawa. The act of floor-crossing, a tradition dating back to Confederation, has evolved over time to carry electoral consequences.
According to Semra Sevi, an assistant professor in the University of Toronto’s political science department, the decision to switch parties is a risky maneuver that often diminishes a politician’s re-election prospects. Sevi’s research, tracking party-switching MPs from Confederation to 2015, indicates that while early floor-crossers maintained their vote share post-switch, the trend has since shifted.
Sevi notes that as political parties become more established, the electoral cost of switching has significantly increased, making survival outside one’s original party increasingly challenging. While there are exceptions to this rule, the ultimate test lies in the upcoming elections.
Over the years, numerous MPs have changed affiliations, some opting for independent status while others align with former adversaries. The success of an MP’s re-election post-switch often hinges on the perceived legitimacy of their motives among voters. D’Entremont’s recent move, citing dissatisfaction with the Conservative leadership, could be viewed as opportunistic, potentially jeopardizing his credibility.
Despite potential backlash and criticism for party-switching, there are no legal barriers preventing such shifts. Attempts to mandate re-election under a new party banner through by-elections have failed to materialize into law.
Notable instances of floor-crossing include Jenica Atwin’s shift from the Greens to the Liberals in 2021, citing party discord as the reason. Leona Alleslev’s departure from the Liberals to the Conservatives in 2018, followed by re-election and subsequent defeat, also highlight the complexities of such moves.
In the early 2000s, a significant exodus from the Canadian Alliance occurred due to dissatisfaction with party leadership, leading to the formation of the Democratic Representative Caucus. The fallout resulted in a merger with the Progressive Conservative Party to establish the modern Conservative Party.
Reflecting on past cases like Scott Brison’s successful transition to the Liberals post-merger, d’Entremont may find guidance for his potential re-election strategy. The story of Belinda Stronach’s dramatic switch to the Liberals in 2005, impacting both political and personal spheres, serves as a poignant reminder of the risks and rewards associated with floor-crossing in Canadian politics.