In the early hours of Wednesday, telescopes worldwide will aim to capture a unique event as an aging rocket collides with the illuminated side of the moon. This rocket’s second stage belonged to a SpaceX Falcon 9 that launched two commercial lunar landers, Firefly Blue Ghost-1 from the U.S. and ispace Hakuto-R Resilience from Japan, back in January 2025.
Bill Gray, an independent astronomer and software developer, had been monitoring the rocket’s trajectory since its launch. In September last year, he predicted a close encounter with the moon on August 5, 2026. Accounting for the gravitational influence of both the moon and Earth, as well as the slight force exerted by the sun, Gray determined that the rocket was on a direct collision course with the moon.
The impact is expected to occur on the moon’s daylight side near its limb. This event is not unprecedented, as there have been previous instances of human-made objects striking the lunar surface intentionally or accidentally.
A group of astronomers has urged large observatories and amateur stargazers to observe the impact, which is scheduled for August 5 at 2:34:32.9 a.m. ET. The best viewing opportunities will be in central and eastern regions of Canada and the U.S., as well as parts of the Caribbean and South America, where the moon will be prominently positioned above the horizon.
The rocket, hurtling at approximately 2.43 kilometers per second, is anticipated to create a plume of rock and dust in space, potentially ejecting over a million kilograms of debris that will eventually settle back onto the lunar surface. Observations of this phenomenon are crucial for gathering valuable data.
Astronomers seek to understand the risks posed by artificial impacts on the moon, especially as human exploration missions to the moon become more frequent. The impact event will shed light on potential hazards and provide insights into the safety of future lunar missions.
As the August 5 collision approaches, Gray continues to monitor various space objects, including China’s Chang’e 3 rocket upper stage from 2013, to assess any potential impact risks in the future.